The New Method of Predicting the Importance of Patented Technologies

Building of all spheres of life at a qualitatively new technological level and possession of one's own technological keys to the creation of goods and services of the next generations is necessary to ensure one of the key principles of the development of the state, namely the achievement of technological sovereignty. In modern realities, the development of enterprises cannot be carried out without coordination with partners from Russia, as well as China, India and other countries. The selection of potential partners can be carried out on the basis of the revealed significance of their patented technological solutions. Further ranking of potential partners can be carried out on the basis of the revealed significance of their patented technological solutions. At the same time, it is proposed to use three criteria: the mass nature of the subject of the patented invention in the current period, the predicted mass nature of the subject (technology) in the future period, the success of the patent in the information field. The novelty of the developed method of forecasting the significance of patented technologies is the use of the generated metrics of innovation potential (prospects) to analyze the global patent array according to the sphere of interests of key enterprises of the Volgograd region. The developed software module provides the following functions: a) parsing of patent documents is carried out from Yandex Patents and Google Patents; b) the formation of a list of IPC classes corresponding to the spheres of interests of enterprises of the Volgograd region, and the extraction of patents of these classes from Google Patents; c) the determination of the mass content of the subject of the invention in the current period is carried out by clustering the patent array based on the lists of keywords provided by Google Patents; d) the predicted mass content of the subject (technology) in the future the period is determined by the ARIMA method; e) success in the information area is determined based on the information provided by Google Patents about the citation of the patent.